The Fed Will Probably Hold. Buyers Already Folded.
Economists expect a pause next week and a hike in December. Contracts to buy homes just fell to the lowest level on record. In my opinion, that second number is the one that matters to you.
The Facts, Short
The Fed: hold now, hike later
In a Reuters poll taken Oct 16-20, 94 of 100 economists expect the Fed to hold its 3.75%-4.00% range on Oct 27-28. All 100 expect a hike in December. About 60% see a peak of 4.00%-4.25%.
Buyers: record low
NAR's pending home sales fell 7.3% in September, to the lowest reading since the index began in 2001. Forecasters expected about a 0.4% dip. Contracts were down 11.3% from a year ago.
Builders: pulling back
Housing starts fell 5.2% in September and were 7.4% lower than a year ago (Commerce Department, as reported by CNBC). CNBC also reported futures pricing a likely December hike and another in March 2027.
My Opinion, Labeled as One
When most buyers sit out, the ones still shopping may face less competition: fewer bidding wars, more room to negotiate. That is my read, not a promise. Nobody knows where rates go next, including me.
Why Waiting for the Fed May Not Help
The Fed sets a short-term rate. Mortgage rates track longer-term bond yields and move before the Fed does. A hold next week is already expected, so in my view it is unlikely to change much on its own. The December question is the bigger one, and the consensus says hike.
Waiting for a better rate is a bet. Waiting while the field is thin has a cost too: when buyers come back, they tend to come back together.
If You Are a Physician
Your income story is not a W-2 story: contracts, start dates, student debt, RVUs. A quiet market gives you time to get that underwritten properly instead of rushed. Building instead of buying? Ask about construction-to-permanent financing. Served? VA loans may be worth comparing.
What this means for your numbers, your timeline and your contract is the part I will not guess at in a blog post. That takes your facts.
Your Situation, Not the Headline
Are you overpaying on your mortgage? Not sure?
Just ask Rosie. Find out instantly at seanshallis.com. Or book 15 minutes with me and bring your questions.
Learn more: Treasury Over 5% · Buy When Rates Rise · Physician First Home: Buy or Rent · Physician Loans
These are my own personal opinions as an individual market observer. They are not the views of any employer, lender, bank or institution, none of which has reviewed or approved this post. Nothing here is financial, investment, tax or legal advice.
Sources (public reporting): Reuters poll of economists, Oct 16-20, 2026, published Oct 20, 2026; National Association of REALTORS Pending Home Sales release, Oct 20, 2026; U.S. Census Bureau / HUD New Residential Construction release, Oct 20, 2026; CNBC, Oct 20, 2026. Figures are third-party data as of publication and change continuously. Forecasts and futures pricing are other parties' expectations, not facts, and may be wrong. “Less competition” is my opinion, not a statement about any specific market or property.
Nothing here is a rate quote, an offer of credit, a commitment to lend or a guarantee of any rate, price, savings or outcome. All loans subject to credit approval and program guidelines; not all programs available in all states or for all loan amounts.
Sean Shallis · NMLS #2362814 · Equal Housing Lender